Integration of genomics and modelling into a single framework to inform future importation and establishment risk assessment of emerging pathogens

Funding period: 2023-2025
Lead: Carmen Lia Murall
Total GRDI funding: $909,900

The international monitoring and risk assessments of importation and spread of emerging pathogens and variants done by PHAC needs to better capitalise on genomics derived inputs for modelling, in order to more effectively give evidence-based assessments for decision making. Early assessment of the threat of an emerging pathogen and what subsequent mitigation measures to employ are increasingly data driven. As costs drop and expertise broadens, the use of whole genome sequencing is expanding globally for the analysis and evaluation of pandemic-potential and emerging pathogens, such as coronaviruses, influenza, Ebola, etc. Yet incorporation of this data source into risk modelling of importation and spread is only beginning to be developed. Genomics-based methods of threat assessment including phylodynamics and phylogeography can be used to infer epidemiologically important parameters and can be used to assess the speed of growth and geographical spread patterns of an emerging pathogen or variant. The main objective of this proposal is the development of validated genomics-informed risk models and genomic epidemiology tools which can be used to inform the effective response to future pathogen-associated public health threats.